There was news this afternoon of American military casualties in Iraq, which was undoubtedly to be expected. This may be what it felt like 110 years ago, in August 1914. Nations aligned and catalysts gave reason for those nations to act.  What should be most troubling is that WWI ensued in a manner unlike popular expectations at the time, and that should give us extremely great pause, worry, and humility as we await events in the Middle East.

Hopefully, August 2024 will resemble the tit-for-tat episodes of April 2024 and January 2021, but the possibility of something greater, more historic and catastrophic should have good betting odds in Las Vegas. There should be no hand-wringing over the US being “dragged” into a war in the Middle East. This is as much or more of the US’ making than anyone’s. With a lame-duck president and two major presidential candidates each deferential to the Israel lobby, there is a fateful and helpless nature to this, but if US hands are genuinely tied, we have only ourselves to blame for the reality we have created.