Both Iran and Israel are claiming victory following Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel. This may be as true as it is false. There was no military success for either side. Israel may have shot down most of the drones and cruise missiles Iran fired but expended a large volume of air defense missiles that take time and are costly to replace. Iran’s hypersonic missiles might have punched through Israel’s defenses but it seems unlikely they did enough damage to hurt future Israeli military operations.

The victories may come from the respective domestic political response. If it’s judged that even though such attacks and retaliations yield little (except for more factory orders from weapons companies) and come with little cost, the benefits Iranian and Israeli leaders see in boosting domestic political support, even if it is confined to certain demographics and constituencies, could be enough to embolden continued attacks. That is extremely worrying.